The American researchers warn of the regional repercussions of this situation, noting that the state’s disengagement from the southern wilayas now poses a direct threat to the stability of the Sahel. They recommend stronger U.S. engagement with local communities, emphasizing that their inclusion is a strategic priority for regional security and the prevention of radicalization.
Despite being rich in natural resources—oil, gas, and minerals—the southern regions of Algeria remain plagued by poverty and exclusion. Youth unemployment rates exceed 30 percent, infrastructure is scarce, and public services are largely inadequate. The report describes this as a “poverty in abundance paradox,” the result of a centralized policy that channels investments toward major northern cities at the expense of Saharan territories.
This economic and territorial imbalance has fueled a sense of injustice and abandonment among local populations. The authors note that decades of marginalization have weakened the social fabric, creating fertile ground for extremist influence.
A Militarized and Ineffective Governance
The report sharply criticizes Algiers’ security strategy, calling it overly militarized and disconnected from local realities. The recent destruction of a Malian drone near Tinzaouatine last April illustrates, according to the analysts, the rigidity of a regime that favors repression over dialogue. This excessive militarization, rather than easing tensions, has deepened mistrust between the army and Saharan populations.
Located at the crossroads of smuggling and trans-Saharan trafficking routes, the southern region has become a security weak spot, exploited by armed groups taking advantage of institutional vacuums and the lack of viable economic alternatives.
The Newlines Institute calls for a paradigm shift, arguing that the billions poured into security have yielded only temporary results, while targeted investment in local development could have brought lasting stability. The think tank urges more direct cooperation between the United States and Saharan civil society through research initiatives, microfinancing programs, and institutional support for local actors.
The report also highlights the crucial role of the Tuareg diaspora, seen as a civic bridge vital for rebuilding trust between the state and its southern citizens.
A Strategic Issue for the West
The stability of southern Algeria, the report concludes, extends far beyond the country’s borders. It represents a key strategic concern for the United States and Europe, whose energy security depends partly on Algerian exports. Ignoring the warning signs coming from the Saharan regions, the authors caution, would mean repeating the same mistakes made elsewhere in the Sahel—regions now engulfed in chaos and radicalization.
This sobering assessment once again exposes the limits of an authoritarian model incapable of integrating its own peripheries, and reminds that human development and territorial justice remain the strongest bulwarks against extremism.
Translated from Abderrazzak Boussaid’s French article – le7tv