“ALGERIAN STATE SECRET”: OIL AND GAS WELLS ARE PRACTICALLY DRY
It is one of the most carefully maintained lies of the Algerian military regime: behind the triumphalist rhetoric of a so called “self proclaimed regional power”, Algeria is heading straight toward a major collapse. According to multiple international analyses, the country could become unable to live off its hydrocarbons by the end of 2026, and be completely deprived of oil and gas export capacity by 2028. In geopolitical terms, this means one thing: the emergency is immediate.
In international financial and economic circles, the diagnosis is clear. Algeria is facing an existential threat to its economic model, which is entirely dependent on an energy rent that is coming to an end. This announced disaster is being hidden by the ruling military junta, which prefers propaganda, diplomatic forward flight and internal repression to any serious structural reform.
A leading international report, produced by experts from the Shift Project, a think tank specialising in global energy issues, had already sounded the alarm as early as 2020. Its conclusions are damning: Algerian oil and gas production is engaged in an irreversible decline, with a sharp drop expected from the end of 2026 and a near disappearance from 2028 onwards.
Currently ranked among the gas suppliers of southern Europe, Algeria is described in this report as a source that is set to dry up rapidly, to the point of becoming marginal and then nonexistent within a few years. This explosive reality is stubbornly ignored by the military authorities.
The figures speak for themselves. Hydrocarbon production has been in continuous decline since 2007, with a cumulative drop of nearly 24 percent between 2007 and 2019. This negative trend, already alarming, is expected to worsen brutally between the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2028, pushing the country into a zone of extreme turbulence.
The report warns of the political and social consequences of this situation, stressing that the Algerian regime relies almost exclusively, 98 percent, on oil revenues to buy social peace and maintain a fragile institutional system. When this windfall disappears, the entire structure of power will be shaken.
Even worse, the vicious circle is already underway. The absence of economic diversification, systemic corruption, managerial incompetence and the grip of the army on the economy block any credible transition. Algeria is therefore racing toward a wall at full speed, driven by a military junta disconnected from reality and incapable of anticipating the future.
The report is unequivocal: without an immediate and radical break with the rent based model and without an exit from dependence on hydrocarbons, Algeria is exposing itself to social implosion and irreversible economic collapse. Yet despite a collapsing Algerian dinar, now exceeding 300 dinars to one euro, the ageing leadership persists in denial, trapped in an authoritarian and archaic mindset and a moribund Soviet style ideology.
By hiding the truth and sacrificing the country’s future to the survival of a mafia like military regime, the Algerian authorities are themselves preparing the storm they claim to fear. And this time, no slogan, no external diversion and no media manipulation will be enough to mask the horror of the collapse that has already been announced.
Translated from Abderrazzak Boussaid’s French article – le7tv
